Brace for Technological Unemployment!

Few months back I called the helpline of an electricity provider in the US for a billing query. A beautiful voice answered the phone, the call was professionally handled and I received satisfactory responses to all my questions. Nothing unique about this experience but what was interesting was the call was answered using IVR (Interactive Voice Response). It was a thought provoking experience.

If one looks around there is so much investment going into reducing the human element, of course not with any malicious intent but to reduce cost, improve quality, increase productivity and increase output. Here are few of the recent developments, most of them using Artificial Intelligence (AI):

• Driverless Car - Tesla, Google, Apple and many more are investing heavily and experimenting with their respective proto-types. It is expected that by 2040, 75% of the cars will be driverless in the US.
•  Blockchain Technology
• Algorithm Trading – Most of the banks have already put this to use and Algo trading is faster, more accurate and profitable
• Cashier Free convenience stores – Re: “Amazon Go”
• Intelligent Assistant - Apple’s Siri, Google’s Google Now etc. are the solution to replace personal assistants
• Robots on the shop floor, un-manned traffic control and the list goes on 

Connecting the dots, the future jobs will be those jobs which can’t be performed by artificial intelligence. Anything repetitive or needing low or no cognitive capabilities will cease to exist. May sound apparent but the future jobs will be jobs requiring “common sense” those related to:

•        Problem solving – Consulting and Project/Change management
•        Resolving Human Issues – HR and Relationship management
•        Science – Researchers, Developers, Testers, Doctors etc. Robots don’t know that strings can pull but the strings can’t push.
•        Sportsmen, Craftsmen and Entertainers – Droids can’t be creative

Automation will surely affect the job market and this change will be too much and too soon. Hence it is important for us to brace ourselves for this change.

To end my blog on a positive note hopefully the future won’t be gloomy. Historical records show that in the 1800s, many Americans worked seventy hours or more per week. It is important to draw a lesson here. Technology increases worker productivity and the total wealth produced by the enterprise. In such a scenario, one option is to let some workers work long hours, tax them, and use taxes to pay for the unemployed. A better option is to let many more workers work shorter hours per week and earn decent wages; with lower taxes and lower or no unemployment. The additional leisure or personal time that people gain can be used for intellectual and other ethical pursuits. The latter scenario is possible and leaders across the globe will develop scenarios and strategies to get there.

Few of us will find it difficult to accept this and I think there must have been a lot of resistance to adopt a wheel when it was created. Its human nature to fear the unknown but to adapt to change is more human.