Wednesday, April 1, 2020

India is set to surprise the world in combating the Covid-19!


The way India is managing the Covid-19 outbreak, the country will come out stronger after the pandemic. Listing down a few of the measures I'm aware that Government of India has taken: 

1.      Pre-emptive actions started with spreading Covid-19 awareness message on the caller tunes of a billion telephone connections. Yes, that message which started with a loud cough when you called anyone.

2.      Encouraging the masses to take part in suggesting innovative measures to contain Covid-19. Re: https://innovate.mygov.in/covid19/

3.      Clear direction and communication from the leadership informing about causes of the pandemic, how it can be tackled and why it needs to be tackled. The message from the PM also addressed the potential issues which one might face like food shortages and wage losses and how the citizens need to act to maintain harmony

4.     Indian railways permitted to convert trains into hospitals. India has the largest rail network hence has the largest number of train cars/wagons too and in the times of social distancing the travels and commutes either ways will be low so a great way to put the available resources to use.

5.     Strict lock-down of 21 Days right in the beginning of the spread instead of a corrective measure in the later stages.

6.     To avoid loneliness some old classics are telecast on the national channels for which no expensive cable connections are required

7.     Comic books published in schools making the children aware about the pandemic and by that also spreading awareness among the parents/guardians too

8.     Stringent and smart self-quarantine solutions like
a.      ink on the wrist of the travelers coming to India highlighting to the general public that the person should be indoors due to the recent foreign visit
b.      applications installed on the phone to track the movement during the self-quarantine period and a self-portrait with the surrounding to be uploaded on the application every 4hrs
c.      sample audit by the local police or health workers to make sure proper self-quarantine is followed

9.    Innovative methods used by to follow social distancing e.g. the circles drawn using chalks to make sure decent distance between people in queues at groceries, ATMs etc.

10.  Indian engineers are known for quick and inexpensive technology fixes and low cost ventilators developed by Indian auto manufacturers is another such example

I believe the world will notice the effort and will be astonished with the way India is fighting back. 

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Stay true in the dark and humble in the spotlight!






There is an old hindi saying “The first generation will invent, the second will expand, the third will preserve and the fourth will lose.”

Everything in the economy is cyclical. Nothing great or terrible is likely to stay that way for long, because the same forces that cause things to be great or terrible also plant the seeds to push them the other way. E.g. Bull markets make stocks expensive, expensive stocks leave little room for error, and little room for error increases the odds of bull markets ending. Same thing in the other direction. Recessions cause pessimism. Pessimism causes underproduction, underproduction leads to scarcity, scarcity leads to a new boom.

People whose behaviours are changed by their own success, are vulnerable to the same cycles. It goes like this. The more successful you are at something, the more convinced you become that you’re doing it right. The more convinced you are that you’re doing it right, the less open you are to change. The less open you are to change, the more likely you are to tripping in a world that changes all the time.

There are a million ways to get rich. But the key to stay rich is humility. The irony is that few things squash humility like getting rich in the first place. JPMorgan Private Bank studied the ultra-wealthy Forbes 400 Richest Americans and found that fewer than 15% of these multi-millionaires stayed on the list over a 21-year period. The majority saw their wealth stagnate or, worse, watched it decline.

Few reasons why people aren’t able to preserve wealth

  • Excessive concentration in a particular asset is the foremost pitfall– It may sound clichéd “Putting all eggs in one basket” is a crime. Wealth concentration in a single asset class or a single company, exposes an investor to a host of risks that can permanently impair capital. Whether it’s due to the fading fortunes of a sector, management pratfalls or a changing competitive landscape, any single investment can easily lose value, sometimes quickly beyond ones control.
  • Too much leverage - Unfortunately, in the blind pursuit of more money, many affluent individuals forget their paramount goal is to stay wealthy.
  • Chronic overspending is the third main pitfall. Most wealthy families do not budget because they have rarely seen problematic times related to their finances. As Warren Buffett once said “I have lot of friends who have a lot more possessions. But in some cases I feel the possessions possesses them, rather than the other way round”
  • Finally, family dynamics can impair wealth.
No one has a shortcut to get wealthy but staying wealthy shouldn’t be that difficult. All it takes is to stay humble, never be complacent and avoid the above mistakes.

Friday, December 9, 2016

Brace for Technological Unemployment!



Few months back I called the helpline of an electricity provider in the US for a billing query. A beautiful voice answered the phone, the call was professionally handled and I received satisfactory responses to all my questions. Nothing unique about this experience but what was interesting was the call was answered using IVR (Interactive Voice Response). It was a thought provoking experience.

If one looks around there is so much investment going into reducing the human element, of course not with any malicious intent but to reduce cost, improve quality, increase productivity and increase output. Here are few of the recent developments, most of them using Artificial Intelligence (AI):
  • Driverless Car - Tesla, Google, Apple and many more are investing heavily and experimenting with their respective proto-types. It is expected that by 2040, 75% of the cars will be driverless in the US.
  •  Blockchain Technology
  • Algorithm Trading – Most of the banks have already put this to use and Algo trading is faster, more accurate and profitable
  • Cashier Free convenience stores – Re: “Amazon Go”
  • Intelligent Assistant - Apple’s Siri, Google’s Google Now etc. are the solution to replace personal assistants
  • Robots on the shop floor, un-manned traffic control and the list goes on 

Connecting the dots, the future jobs will be those jobs which can’t be performed by artificial intelligence. Anything repetitive or needing low or no cognitive capabilities will cease to exist. May sound apparent but the future jobs will be jobs requiring “common sense” those related to:
  •        Problem solving – Consulting and Project/Change management
  •        Resolving Human Issues – HR and Relationship management
  •        Science – Researchers, Developers, Testers, Doctors etc. Robots don’t know that strings can pull but the strings can’t push.
  •        Sportsmen, Craftsmen and Entertainers – Droids can’t be creative

Automation will surely affect the job market and this change will be too much and too soon. Hence it is important for us to brace ourselves for this change.

To end my blog on a positive note hopefully the future won’t be gloomy. Historical records show that in the 1800s, many Americans worked seventy hours or more per week. It is important to draw a lesson here. Technology increases worker productivity and the total wealth produced by the enterprise. In such a scenario, one option is to let some workers work long hours, tax them, and use taxes to pay for the unemployed. A better option is to let many more workers work shorter hours per week and earn decent wages; with lower taxes and lower or no unemployment. The additional leisure or personal time that people gain can be used for intellectual and other ethical pursuits. The latter scenario is possible and leaders across the globe will develop scenarios and strategies to get there.


Few of us will find it difficult to accept this and I think there must have been a lot of resistance to adopt a wheel when it was created. Its human nature to fear the unknown but to adapt to change is more human.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

What’s wrong with America?


I visited the US for the first time 8 years back and living here since some time now. I was awestruck from the first glimpse of this nation and soon realized why this called the land of dreams (the American Dream as you may have heard). After spending some time reading, meeting people and a experiencing US during the visits across multiple cities I got a feeling somehow the "American Dream" is fading. Penning down some of my observations.

1.       Income Inequality - Income disparities have become so pronounced that America’s top 0.1% now average nearly two hundred times as much income as the bottom 99.9% percent. This gap between the super-rich and poor is increasing at a pace never experienced before. A progressive tax system should function to narrow income gaps between the affluent and the rest but per the statistics apparently American tax system hasn’t done any narrowing.

2.       Corporations Funding political parties which is defeating democracy - In other words large corporates funding US elections is making America less democratic. What the public wants does not typically impact what the U.S. government does. The policies or regulations are potentially built by the government and the regulators to favour the corporates who fund the elections. Citizens become convinced that the government is only serving and representing the interests of the rich. Political candidates and parties are relying more on deep pocketed campaign donors than at any other time before. As the rich become richer and secure more political influence, they support policies that make them wealthier at the expense of everyone else.

3.       Political lobbying - It is now routine for the interests being regulated to control the regulators, which makes things much easier on the regulated.

4.       Raising Debt – US is on the verge of breaking the $20 Trillion debt mark. To feed the expanding debt, the whole economy has to grow i.e. manufacturing, sales and consumption all must increase. Businesses have to expand to stay afloat. But since the money scarcity and debt pressure keeps increasing, economic growth becomes more and more of a squeeze play. The trend is to cut the work force, cut wages, cut benefits, cut the quality of the product or service, and of course, outsource the labour to foreign countries with low wages and poor labour protection—anything that can be done to get more out of less.

5.       Corporate tax structure – Large corporations can legally avoid taxes due to the sheer tax structure. Please note I’m not talking about avoiding taxes by setting up offices in tax havens here. Simple math: Individuals pay their taxes first and then consume/spend the rest whereas corporations consume/spend first and then pay taxes. This flaw is basic taxation is also leading to disparity of income in the US and across the globe.

6.       Consumption based economy - The US is a consumption-based economy and it is a consumption-driven society. Consumption is an economic function that is defined as the value of all goods and services bought by people. In the recent past progress of a nation is determined by the performance of a country in terms of consumption level. The underlying theory of a consumption-based economy is that progressively greater consumption of goods is economically beneficial. But this theory is only partly true. Being self-reliant in true sense will ensure sustainable economic conditions in the long run. Neither extreme is sustainable for any economy re: China a production based economy and US a consumption based economy.

7.       Inappropriate Marketing – Advertising should be informative for the customers and not a “Dog & Pony Show” highlighting the rosy picture to sell a product. Obsessive consumers are not born, they're formed by advertising. E.g. If you’re selling a car showcase the features of your product or do a comparative analysis with other cars in the segment why do you want a sports star or a film star to sell your product. Informative advertisements would result in rational decisions these ads provide no information and promote irrational choices.

8.       Luxuries considered as necessities – The viewpoints of people from different backgrounds and upbringing will differ a lot here e.g. clothes dryer, dish washer, home computer, microwave etc. are considered to be necessities in the developed worlds.  More and more products & services are considered to be a necessity e.g. a summer and a winter vacation is preferred over taking a break and planning a get together with family and friends. Upgrading you smart phone, laptop, car etc. after paying of the EMI on it if becoming #thetrend of the day.

9.       Cost of living - With a rise in nuclear families or single parent and both parents working household’s expenditure on labour saving items is increasing. In addition nuclear families lead to increase the process of rent & real estate (housing is generally a significant portion of one’s household expenditure). Over reliance on private transportation not on public transportation which increases the demand of not only oil but various other goods and services related to purchasing, owning and maintaining ones vehicles. This also adds to ones cost of living.

10.   Expensive health care and education system – Good health care and education system are the key pillars for a sound and sustainable economic progress. Unfortunately in the US these requirements or rights are widely unintentionally denied due to them being very expensive (my first-hand experience is medical care is too complex to) for the vast majority of citizens.

Like every other nation there are positives and negatives here too but what is important is how the people and the leaders turn things around.

Best wishes everyone!

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Looks like it will be Trump!



I’m not a “Political Pundit” but was keenly following the US Presidential elections 2016, primarily to know more about the US political system. Another reason was to hear Donald Trump’s views and to understand his techniques to negotiate and debate.

Donald Trump started as 1 of the 17 biggies in the Republican Party, many of them with sound political backing and corporate funding unlike him. 

#1 - Trump starts to ensure he is noticed and gets attention. Hence he starts with making outlandish and polarizing statements against

  • Immigrants
  • ISIS and the families of the terrorist (Bombing ISIS and going after the families of the terrorist)
  • Policies of countries like China and India
  • Muslims
  • Women (in certain cases)
  • Mexicans  

#2 - Media Coverage with "Trump Statements”. In addition to #1 his suggestions to build a wall on the Mexican border and not allowing Mexican’s to send money back home, his polarizing statements about Muslims, women and multiple other issues ensured the media covers him well. The trick was successful and got free media coverage worth $2Bn (re: NY Times), this was the maximum amongst all the contenders.

#3 - Starts picking upon his opponents, often repeats his quotes during the debates and on & off the stage too. He started with taking on the strongest and then picking up the next best. Branding like Weak or low energy Jeb, lying Ted, little Marco, Crooked Hillary or heartless Hillary.

#4 - Shifting gears and started talking about too much weaponry and destruction around the world that’s opposite to the previous suggestions to not have gun free zone in schools and bombing the hell out of ISIS

#5 - He is not trying to be politically correct hence can afford be outrageous. Many voters may like this trait of his!

#6 - He is not trying to please everyone

#7 - He is fearless and understands he has nothing to loose. In an interview to CNBC he mentioned if he doesn't win the elections he is going to take a "very, very nice long vacation"

To sum-up Trumps style was simple
1.     Get Attention
2.     Be Flexible
3.     Win one at a time
4.     Remove threats one at a time
5.     Define the terms of the engagement i.e. highlighting or discussing things which were not even part of the mainframe discussion like the “Trump Wall”, anti-establishment etc. For e.g. having an "outsider" now in White House was one of the solutions he proposed. Basically Trump made being an insider a stigma and Clinton fell for it. Now this was so effective that even Hillary Clinton called herself an outsider instead of being the first lady for 8 years and then the secretary of the state now for 4 years. Hillary’s website also has Trump's name “Love Trump Haters” but for Donald every publicity is a good publicity

The recent developments will increase the chances of Donald Trump becoming the next US President
- Terror attacks in multiple places across US including the recent ones in NY, NJ and Minnesota
- Speculations about Hillary's health
- Clinton's email server issues and 
- Wikileaks publishing alleged emails from Clinton

Lately elections across the globe aren’t fought on policies and proposals but personalities and the same thing is happening in the US too (Trump vs Clinton).

Best wishes to everyone, please register yourself and exercise your voting rights!!